Argentina struggling again with Inflation

(Image source: http://www.economist.com/node/21548229) 

Interestingly, Buenos Aires ran-out of Ketchup for days in the recent weeks. All credit to the rigid foreign exchange policies of the current government and stringent import/export policies.

Simple plain yogurt that used to cost 2 Pesos a few months back is now considered luxury. It now costs roughly 7.5 Pesos – a price increase of 260% - something that can get inflation experts dizzy.

New monetary policies and revamped trade regulations are the need of the hour for Argentineans.

(This blog was written as part of the McCombs MBA Global Trip NEWS Round-up effort)

-        By Jayanth Rangaraju

Argentinian Peso Falters again

(Image Source - http://www.uncorkingargentina.com/blog/tag/travel-argentina/)

Argentines are back in the crisis mode with Argentinian Peso continuing to falter over the last few weeks. The question that is being asked again and again is – what is the Argentinian Central Bank planning to do to counter this slide?

President Cristina Fernández has not been accessible to the public and press and has done just one public meeting in the last six weeks. This has signaled a global concern over the fragility of developing economies similar to Argentina.

The Peso has plunged 15% on January 22dn and 23^rd of 2014, slipping from 6.9 pesos per dollar to 8 pesos per dollar. Roughly it has lost about 19% in just January. It’s still to be seen if President Cristina does anything to stop the Peso from continuing to plunge.

(This blog was written as part of the McCombs MBA Global Trip NEWS Round-up effort)

-        By Jayanth Rangaraju

Economy Landscape of Argentina over the last century

A CENTURY ago, when Harrods decided to set up its first overseas emporium, it chose Buenos Aires. In 1914 Argentina stood out as the country of the future. Its economy had grown faster than America’s over the previous four decades. Its GDP per head was higher than Germany’s, France’s or Italy’s. It boasted wonderfully fertile agricultural land, a sunny climate, a new democracy (universal male suffrage was introduced in 1912), an educated population and the world’s most erotic dance. Immigrants tangoed in from everywhere. For the young and ambitious, the choice between Argentina and California was a hard one.[1]

From 1980 to 1905 were the years when the GDP grew at 8% year-over-year resulting in putting Argentina at the top of the list as a country of the future. But unfortunately for Argentina, it could not sustain this growth for long. Argentina remained neutral during the First World War. Starting early 1920s the growth stated to slow down and eventually the GDB fell by a fourth between 1929 and 1932 due to the effects from great depressions. Modest growth resumed around the Second World War as the exports started to grow by the late 1930s. Until the 1940s the primary contributor the growth was Agriculture but starting the late 1940s the Manufacturing sector overtook the Agriculture sector for the first time.

Graph comparing the GDP growth rate of US and Argentina

(source: https://www.google.com/publicdata/directory)

From the 40s to the 70s the economy grew almost five folds and the population doubled but at the same time Argentina suffered from the chronic inflation (averaged around 26% annually). From 1976 to 1983 the economy started to decline under military rule and finally led to economic in-stabilization that ended with about 400,000 companies of all sizes going in bankruptcy. The economic policies from 1983 to 2001 have failed to reverse the situation.  Attempting a remedy, Argentina pegged Argentinian Peso to US Dollar in 1991 this resulted in limited money supply and hence limited growth. But economic shock and failure of the system eventually led to the collapse ($100 Billion of bond defaults) – The Argentinian Default of 2001.

Graph comparing the GDP of US and Argentina

(source: https://www.google.com/publicdata/directory)

Starting 2003 the Argentinian economy is back on the growth path – growing at a steady pace of ~7% year over year and thus has been considered an emerging economy. Board based recoveries in agriculture,, construction, automotive, and energy sectors has promised better prospects for Argentina in the 21^st century. Fast-forward today, Argentina is in the forefront for of an emerging market crisis mainly due to its politics, corruption, unfavorable socio-economic policies by its current government and more.  Overall, it’s expected that in the upcoming elections the populist sentiments in the general public will lead to the over throwing of the current “Justicialist Party” leading to reforms of the socio-economic policies and hence lead to bullish growth of the Argentinian economy.

(This blog was written as part of the McCombs MBA Global Trip NEWS Round-up effort)

-        By Jayanth Rangaraju

---

[1] From cover article on “The Economist” – Feb 15^th 2014 “The parable of Argentina” 

TEDxSMU 2011: Disruption AND/OR what Disruption has most impacted you?

Here is my entry to the TEDxSMU-2011 entry lottery -

In short - Disruption is in the air

Disruption has been the theme of the world for the last decade. Interestingly Middle-East, Europe, Asia and the America are all going through major disruption at a time when the world has never been more interconnected.

The political unrests in the Arab world - Libya, Yemen, Egypt and Tunisia that have been for decades ruled by dictatorial regimes now join the free world. The people there realized, they are no longer ready to accept being left behind, unemployed, un-educated and powerless compared to rest of the world. The economic instability in the European Union that is testing the Euro Model and keeping the world economy on its heals. The question now is - how long can the Germans keep the PIIGS from defaulting? or is there an alternative here?

In Asia, China's controlled-currency/low-consumption/high-export growth model is being put to rigorous tests of a kind that does not have a precedent. And finally the middle class in India has woken up to a mass movement against corruption and this is just the beginning for Indians. Last but definitely not the least, the tremors the America's credit driven capitalistic economic model is facing day-in and out, with the ever increasing Debt-to-GDP ratio and unemployment. I believe, the only way to get ourselves back up and running is to have leader who believes in a good mix of spending cuts, tax increases/reforms and investments in our future i.e. education, research, infrastructure and production.  

On the brighter side - Disruption is the fundamental tenet of progress. History has proven more than once that past actions of disruptions be it in politics, business, economy and technology etc. have essentially provided and ambiance for a  better outcome for the greater good. If we all don't wake up and act now, it might be too late to prevent a global crisis.

Ideas for this essay were derived from Thomas Friedman's article and a few pod-casts of Planet Money

Link to TEDxSMU-2011

http://www.tedxsmu.org/events/tedxsmu-2011/ 

Indian Economy is growing - but is "all" of India Moving Forward?

I have been asked a plenty of times by my friends at work and else where on why there is so much of poverty in India, in-spite it being the 4th biggest economy in the world. I have pondered over this question myself at numerous times - Indian Economy is growing - BUT is all of India?

Certainly there are two sub-sets of India -

One part of India is the 2nd fastest growing nation in the world, with its economy growing at 8% of GDP on an average year after year atleast, over the last decade. This part also accounts towards 10 most richest Indians in the top 100 richest people in the world. It is this part that puts up India on the world chart as the 4th biggest economy. Three fourth of the Fortune 500 companies have a research, development and support centres in India.

The other part that is lagging behind - close to 400 Million people do not have electricity. This part aids in ranking India as 128th in the world in terms of Per-Capita income (PPP) at $2941 per annum. At the least a third of India's population falls below the world poverty line scale. One quarter of the nation's population earns less than the government-specified poverty threshold of 12 Rupees per day (approximately USD $0.25).

So when will this latter part that is lagging far, far behind catch up (or atleast close-up) with the leading part of the nation? Of course there has been a significant improvement in  poverty number of 90% in 1980 to 42% in 1995. Although the Indian economy has grown steadily over the last two decades, its growth has not been even when comparing different social and economic groups, geographic regions or rural and urban areas.

Well every country has it's share of divide between the rich and the poor problems, but in case of India this divide seems to have reached alarming proportions. I agree the strong economic reforms of 1990's from a socialist inspired economy to a free market based economy has produced this flag-bearing leading part of our country, BUT unfortunately its not done much to the other lagging part of India. The last two decade have made the rich, richer and brought most of lower middle class to upper middle class tier but have done nothing significant to the poor sections of the population.

What can be done to enhance a faster growth rate of the left behind part of India? What can act as a catalyst in moving the poor to the lower middle class of society? A closer look at the contributions to GDP reviles that high-tech and service industry accounts for 55% while the industrial sector contributes 28% and agriculture pitches in for 17% of GDP. On the contrary the service and high-tech accounts for 34% of employment, the industrial sector for 14% with agriculture holding the predominant share of 52% of employment. With these numbers it is clear that though we have a majority of our work force involved in agriculture, our economy is not a agriculture based economy - considering the fact that its contribution to the GDP being 17% (although this ranks 2nd in term of contributions to GDP).

Looking at India as an agrarian based economy was probably true for the first 40 years from independence (1950s to 80s), but does not hold good any more after the 90s era. If you were to take a sneak peak into the history of developed countries, one of the popular patterns that will be observed is huge improvements in infrastructure, technology  and adoption of modern agriculture practices resulting in higher yield with lesser work force involved in agriculture. The rest of the work force that was displaced by newer technology moving into manufacturing sectors. In most cases its been the industrial revolution that have facilitated the gradual transition of the poor to the lower middle class tier over a couple of generations. It would not be wrong to say that it is  hard to find one developed country that has "agriculture-ed" its way from a developing to developed economy - although agriculture might have significantly contributed to its growth.

We should not forget in case of India, that most of this one third population that is poor is also illiterate. India currently suffers from an unemployment rate of 10% (100 Million). Close to 30% of the working population are casual worker who work only when they are able to get jobs and remain unemployed for rest of the year. Clearly the next stop for them from agriculture in the rural area or other low paying day jobs in the urban areas is manufacturing. It would be unrealistic to think of using them in any service based or high-tech based sectors.

Talking about manufacturing sector - India has always lagged behind in this front with just 14% of the workforce involved in the industrial sector with a 28% contribution to the GDP. In comparison our next door neighbour China has close to 47% of its GDP contributions from the manufacturing sector. About 8% of the total world's manufacturing output comes from China. India has never been anywhere close to China in being a favoured destination for manufacturing. Reasons mainly being government regulation, policies  and the biggest factor the "COST". Analysts across the world are of the opinion that India's labor regulations are considered tough even by developing country standards. Although unlike China, India being a democratic country - its policy makers can't go to an election with a mandate of giving tax breaks to the rich and the MNC's that would entice them to set up manufacturing facilities in India.


"India’s labor regulations — among the most restrictive and complex in the world — have constrained the growth of the formal manufacturing sector where these laws have their widest application. Better designed labor regulations can attract more labor- intensive investment and create jobs for India’s unemployed millions and those trapped in poor quality jobs. Given the country’s momentum of growth, the window of opportunity must not be lost for improving the job prospects for the 80 million new entrants who are expected to join the work force over the next decade."
– World Bank: India Country Overview 2008.


It's time for Indian government to re-look into its red-tape practices, labor laws, policies  and regulations. It definitely has a tight rope to walk between policies such as giving tax breaks to MNCs in order to entice them to open up manufacturing plants in India which will as a result employ the poor and over a few generations aid their gradual transition to the middle class as a long term goal. Although in a short term  it could be contributing to widen the divide between the rich and the poor. These kinds of policies would definitely need a closer look periodically to take care of all subtle issues that might arise over time. Manufacturing on a larger scale is definitely a way forward for India (with over a 100 Million un-employed currently) and our government must realize and embrace manufacturing friendly regulations at the earliest and work toward making India a popular destination for the manufacturing sector as China, South Korea, Russia and Mexico are as of today.

Note - Most of the facts and figures were referenced from Wikipedia, World Bank report, CIA World Factbook, NPR and other resources easily available on the Internet.

Places I have travelled

And miles to go before I sleep!!!

Idiot Sightings!

Here is a collection of some good funny "Idiot Sighting" jokes that I received as an email forward... This reminded me of the set of idiot sighting jokes that were doing rounds during my school days back home in India :)

I was signing the receipt for my credit card purchase when the clerk noticed that I had never signed my name on the back of the credit card. She informed me that she could not complete the transaction unless the card was signed. When I asked why, she explained that it was necessary to compare the signature on the credit card with the signature I just signed on the receipt. So I signed the credit card in front of her. She carefully compared that signature to the one I signed on the receipt. As luck would have it, they matched.

We had to have the garage door repaired. The Sears repairman told us that one of our problems was that we did not have a 'large' enough motor on the opener. I thought for a minute, and said that we had the largest one Sears made at that time, a 1/2 horsepower. He shook his head and said, "Lady, you need a 1/4 horsepower." I responded that 1/2 was larger than 1/4. He said, "NO, it's not. Four is larger than two..." We haven't used Sears repair since.

My daughter and I went through the McDonald's take-out window and I gave the clerk a $5 bill. Our total was $4.25, so I also handed her a quarter. She said, "You gave me too much money." I said, "Yes I know, but this way you can just give me a dollar bill back." She sighed and went to get the manager who asked me to repeat my request. I did so, and he handed me back the quarter, and said "We're sorry but we cannot do that kind of thing." The clerk then proceeded to give me back $1 and 75 cents in change.

I live in a semi-rural area. We recently had a new neighbor call the local township administrative office to request the removal of the DEER CROSSING sign on our road. The reason: "Too many deer are being hit by cars out here! I don't think this is a good place for them to be crossing anymore." From Kingman , KS .

My daughter went to a local Taco Bell and ordered a taco. She asked the person behind the counter for 'minimal lettuce.' He said he was sorry, but they only had iceberg lettuce. From Kansas City

I was at the airport, checking in at the gate when an airport employee asked, "Has anyone put anything in your baggage without your knowledge?" To which I replied, "If it was without my knowledge, how would I know?" He smiled knowingly and nodded, "That's why we ask." Happened in Birmingham ,Ala.

The stop-light on the corner buzzes when it's safe to cross the street. I was crossing with an intellectually challenged co-worker of mine. She asked if I knew what the buzzer was for. I explained that it signals blind people when the light is red. Appalled, she responded, "What on earth are blind people doing driving? She was a probation officer in Wichita , KS .

I attended a "good-bye" luncheon for an old and dear co-worker. She was leaving the company due to 'downsizing.' Our manager commented cheerfully, "This is fun. We should do this more often." Not another word was spoken. We all just looked at each other with that "deer-in-the-headlights" stare. This was a lunch at ***** ***********.

I work with an individual who plugged her power strip back into itself and for the sake of her life, couldn't understand why her system would not turn on. A deputy with the Dallas County Sheriff's office, no less.

When my husband and I arrived at an automobile dealership to pick up our car, we were told the keys had been locked in it. We went to the service department and found a mechanic working feverishly to unlock the driver side door. As I watched from the passenger side, I instinctively tried the door handle and discovered that it was unlocked. "Hey," I announced to the technician, "It's open!" His reply, "I know. I already got that side." This was at the Ford dealership in Canton , MS .

When I left Hawaii and was transferred to FL, I still had the Hawaiian plates on my car, as my car was shipped from Hawaii . I was parking somewhere (I can't remember) and a guy asked me "Wow, you drove from Hawaii to here?" I looked at him and quickly said "Yep. I took the Hawaii/San Francisco Bridge." He nodded his head and said "Cool!"

iOS 4 for iPhone and iTouch is here

So far the only way to have multitasking on iPhone, iTouch and iPad's was by jailbreaking iOS. Finally multitasking comes into existence on a "non-jailbroken" iPhone and iTouch's with iOS 4 being released today. Although it took me close to an hour ( I am guessing server overload ) to download this 579 MB update through iTunes, it installed on my iPhone and works without a glich.

Though multitasking is the biggest selling point on this release of iOS, it also includes -

• Folders to organize apps
• Unified inbox and ability to arrange emails by thread
• iBooks and sync between various Apple devices
• 5x digital zoom, geo-location tagging and tap to focus 
• Places and Faces just like iPhotos
• Finally you get to set your wallpaper!
• Spell check with suggestions
• Bluetooth support for keyboards 
• Playlists on iPod

Most of these features are NOT new to the world of smart phones and have been around for few years now. Although these features have been available on jail broken iPhones few months from when the iPhone has been out in the market, it took iOS two years to come up with a support for video camera and close to three and half years to come up with multitasking. 

Apple say there are over a 100 new features that are available on iOS 4. I shall post updates if I notice any new worth mentioning features over the next few days. In the mean time try out the upgrade!

TEDxHouston 2010

Yesterday June the 12th 2010 I had an opportunity to attend a TEDx conference here in Houston. TED is a global platform devoted to Ideas Worth Spreading. TEDx is a locally organized event that focuses on individuals and innovation in various cities. For the first time in 2010, TEDxHouston introduced Houston’s most fascinating thinkers and doers to a world stage.


The conference started off with a talk from Dr Brene Brown on a concept called "Wholeheartedness" - a concept on how to develop the courage, connection and compassion to accept ourselves with the imperfections we have in our lives. Dan Phillips taking about the Phoenix Commotion, his construction company that builds affordable houses from reclaimed and recycled materials. Gracie Cavnar - President & CEO Recipe for Success Foundation that specializes in bringing under control the widespread epidemic of childhood obesity in the United States by obesity prevention through nutrition education to school kids. Rick Pal of  Air Generate an Indian taking on the concept of "Jugad" meaning to excel with frugality - which is most likely the case with emerging markets in most developing countries. Dr. Rebecca Richards-Kortum and Dr. Maria Oden speaking on how they inspire bio-med students at Rice University to come up with low cost, maintenance medical equipments that are used to treat millions in African and Caribbean countries. Dr. David Eagleman spoke about "possibilism" and known and unknown uncertainties in our life. Dr Stephen Klineberg spoke about how Houston is one of the top racially diverse cities in the United States and the propective advantages of having no one single majority race between the White, Blacks, Hispanics and Asians. Dr. Klineberg's talk reminded of Russel Peters stand up comedy on the world is mixing. For the complete list of speakers please click here. The archives of yesterdays presentations will soon be published on TEDxHouston.


Over all it was a great lineup of speaker, with each one of them sharing their experiences on how they contribute to the changes in the community around us. The message was very evident and simple - contributing to the community around us always starts small, with each one of us trying to make the place around us a better place to live. The pattern was pretty evident - each accomplished speaker had started out small and over time have progressed to make huge impact to not just the community around us but to communities across various countries of the world.


Kudos to Culture Pilot that organized this event - It was one of the most professionally organized events I have ever attended. The event was extremely well organized by them.  Not only will I be applying to attend TEDxHouston 2011, but will also love to volunteer and be part of the team that organizes the next TEDx event. 

5 things that I would have liked to see at Apple's WWDC

1. OS X 10.7
   What's next after OS X 10.6 Snow Leopard? When would we get to see OS X 10.7? It would have been good to see the future road map of OS X. iOS 4 the one that runs on iPhone and iPad took away all the attention.
   
   
2. iTunes on the cloud
   Apple bought a music on the cloud company by name Lala (http://www.lala.com) and shut it down on 31st May 2010 - a week before WWDC. I was thinking Jobs would come-up with an announcement of iTunes on the cloud concept. That did not happen!
   
   
3.  iPhone on Verizon or Sprint 
   All of us have been wondering when iPhone is going to be available on any other network that AT&T in the US. That is going to be a HUGE game changer to stockholders and subscribers like wise. When is that going to happen? 2011? 2012???
   
   
4. iTouch and iPad with a camera and an internal microphone
   Why will Apple not build iTouch with a internal microphone...that can turn iTouch to a phone with Wi-Fi available almost everywhere with say Skype or Vonage? A camera would also be good to have on a iTouch. Is this a marketing strategy to ensure that iPhone sales are not taken away by iTouch? I am guessing "Yes"
   
   
5. Mac Mini? Mac TV? Mac Air?
   What is the future road map for these products? Any upgrades at all?

Hello, World!

Well, doesn't look like Facebook's "What's on your mind?" window is any more the best repository for all my thought (at all times) as and when they come on my mind... so trying to relocate to my own space to share my thought...Will be good to hear from others as I continue to share my thoughts here.

Cheers!